A family is playing dominos on the porch during a hot Texas afternoon in the 1960s. The father-in-law suggests a road trip to Abilene, a town 60 miles to the north. Keep in mind that most cars did not have A/C in the 1960s.
The wife says, “Sounds good to me.” The husband has reservations because the drive would be so hot but assumes his thinking must be off base because his wife and father-in-law have already expressed a desire to go. So he agrees, but suggests his mother-in-law might not want to go. The mother-in-law also agrees to go too, however.
They take a long, hot, and miserable trip, and none of them enjoy themselves. Upon returning home exhausted later that day, one by one, they admit they didn’t want to go. The mother-in-law says she only agreed to go since the other three were so enthusiastic, the husband says he was only trying to satisfy the others, the wife says the same, and the father-in-law says he only brought the idea up in the first place because the others looked bored. They all sit back, wondering how they ended up taking a trip that none of them wanted.
This scenario is known as the Abilene paradox, a term coined by Jerry B. Harvey, a professor of management at George Washington University. It illustrates the tendency of groups to agree on a course of action that none of the individuals within the group actually want. This paradox occurs when individuals suppress their own opinions to avoid conflict or to please others. A common phrase relating to the Abilene paradox is a desire not to “rock the boat.”
The Abilene paradox is not limited to families on road trips. It can occur in any group setting, including businesses, organizations, and governments. It can lead to poor decisions and wasted resources.
An example of the Abilene paradox cited by Harvey is the Watergate scandal that took place in the United States in the 1970s. During this time, high officials of the Nixon administration were involved in a cover-up of a break-in at the Democratic National Committee headquarters in Washington, D.C. Many individuals indicted for the cover-up later revealed that they had personal doubts about the decision but didn’t voice them because of the pressure to conform to the group’s decision. For instance, campaign aide Herbert Porter said that he “was not one to stand up in a meeting and say that this should be stopped,” a decision that he attributed to “the fear of the group pressure that would ensue, of not being a team player.”
While studying the dynamics of various organizations, Harvey identified risk avoidance as the primary reason behind the paradox. Several psychological concepts contribute to risk avoidance among group members. Action anxiety is one such concept that refers to the intense feelings that arise when individuals consider acting in line with their beliefs. This anxiety is often fueled by negative fantasies, which are the perceived negative consequences that individuals believe they will face if they follow their beliefs. Group members may feel that conforming to the group’s views is the safer option. However, Harvey acknowledges that there is always some level of risk involved in any decision, just as in life. Those who are unwilling to accept this risk are more likely to end up in situations like Abilene.
Harvey suggests that risk avoidance is closely linked to separation anxiety, which is a strong negative emotion that arises when individuals feel disconnected from the rest of the group. The human need for connection and the fear of loneliness are often the underlying factors that lead to action anxiety, negative fantasies, and real risk, which ultimately cause group members to act in opposition to their beliefs.
In conclusion, the Abilene paradox is a real phenomenon that can lead to poor group decisions. By practicing open communication, questioning assumptions, and challenging the status quo, we can avoid falling victim to this paradox and make better decisions that align with our values and goals.
Quotes
“Do not take roads traveled by the public.” —Pythagoras
“For the instinct of imitation and absence of courage govern society and the mob alike.” —Marcel Proust
“Like all men who are fundamentally of the group, of the herd, he was incapable of taking a strong stand with the inevitable loneliness that it implied.” —F. Scott Fitzgerald
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